Canadian Inflation Surges to 2.4% Y/Y on Oil Price Shock The headline inflation rate in Canada surged as expected with the War in Iran and the resulting oil price shock. The inflation rate hit 2.4%, up from 1.8% in February, tying for the highest in a year but a bit below market expectations of 2.5%. The […]

Housing Activity Remains Weak in March  The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems was virtually unchanged (-0.1%) on a month-over-month basis in March 2026. “Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, […]

Canadian employment rose by a moderate 14,100 in March after a tough start to 2026. Given that employment had plunged by a combined 108,700 positions in the first two months of the year, today’s data are far from strong, especially when full-time jobs actually nudged down a bit further last month. Still, even a small plus sign is […]

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just under 2% and core inflation falling to 2.3%, the […]

Housing Activity Fell Again in Early February–Depressed by Record Winter Storm–Before Picking Up in Late February Today’s release of February housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market slowed further at the start of the month, reflecting the lingering effect of January’s snowstorm. Activity picked up in the second half […]

Canadian Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 1.8% in February Canada’s inflation rate slowed by more than expected last month, before the oil shock of the Iran war. The yearly inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Monday. Justin Trudeau introduced a temporary GST/HST break on a […]

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which […]

Housing Activity Fell Again in January–Depressed by Record Winter Storm  Today’s release of January housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market frozen solid by the record winter storms. Both home sales and prices continued their downward trend, but have yet to attract the beleaguered first-time homebuyer. The number of […]

CPI Inflation in Canada Fell A Tick to 2.3% Y/Y in January on Gasoline Price Decline The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January than in […]

Canadian Jobs Growth Slowed Markedly in January as the Unemployment Rate Fell Sharply to 6.5% Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for January was weaker than expected. Employment declined by 24,800 (-0.1%), and the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. This followed only a small gain in December and was the first decline in […]