Canadian Inflation Surged to 2.6% in February, Much Stronger Than Expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. With the federal tax break ending on February 15, the GST and HST were reapplied to eligible products. This put upward pressure on consumer prices for those items, as taxes paid by consumers are included in the CPI.

While the second straight acceleration in the headline number was expected, the pace of price gains may still surprise Bank of Canada policymakers, who cut interest rates for the seventh straight meeting. Donald Trump’s tariff threats hamper business and consumer spending. But assuming the federal sales tax break hadn’t been in place, Canadian inflation would have jumped even higher to 3% in February. This is at the upper bound of the bank’s target range, from 2.7% a month earlier. Canadian inflation has not been at or above 3% since the end of 2023.

Faster price growth was broad-based in February, the end of the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break through the month contributed notable upward pressure to prices for eligible products. Slower growth for gasoline prices (+5.1%) moderated the all-items CPI acceleration.

The CPI rose 1.1% m/m in February and 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  However, the increase exceeded the tax impact as seasonally-adjusted CPI excluding the tax impact was +0.4%. And, in case you want to pin it on food & energy, CPI excluding food, energy & taxes was +0.3%.

Gains were across the board, with the sectors impacted by the tax change seeing the most significant increase: recreation +3.4%, food +1.9%, clothing +1.6%, and alcohol +1.5% more to come next month, with the tax holiday only ending in mid-February. The headline inflation figures are subject to as much noise as we’ve seen in decades. They are poised to continue for at least another couple of months, making it very challenging to interpret the inflation data.

As a result, prices for food purchased from restaurants declined at a slower pace year over year in February (-1.4%) compared with January (-5.1%). Restaurant food prices contributed the most to the acceleration in the all-items CPI in February.

Similarly, on a yearly basis, alcoholic beverages purchased from stores declined 1.4% in February, following a 3.6% decline in January.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices decelerated, with a 5.1% increase in February following an 8.6% gain in January. Prices rose less month over month in February 2025 compared with February 2024, when higher global crude oil prices pushed up gasoline prices, leading to slower year-over-year price growth in February 2025.

Month over month, gasoline prices rose 0.6% in February. This increase was primarily related to higher refining costs amid planned refinery maintenance across North America. This offset lower crude oil prices, mainly due to increased American supply and tariff threats, contributing to slowing global growth concerns.

One notable exception to the broad-based strength was shelter, rising “just” 0.2%. That’s the smallest gain in five months, trimming the yearly pace to 4.2%, the slowest since 2021, with more downside to come. Mortgage interest costs rose a modest 0.2% for a second straight month, slicing it to +9% y/y, ending a 2½-year run of double-digit increases.

Not surprisingly, the core inflation metrics were firm as well. CPI-Trim and Median both rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates are all above 3% as well, pointing to ongoing stickiness. The breadth of inflation, which has been a focus for the Bank of Canada, also worsened with the share of items rising 3%+ increasing modestly. None of this is encouraging news for policymakers.

Bottom Line

This report will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance on easing to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Notably, the upcoming end of the carbon tax will cause inflation to drop sharply in April. However, March may see an increase in inflation as the effects of the tax holiday begin to reverse. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding inflation, which complicates the job of policymakers. We will see what April 2 brings regarding additional tariffs.

If the economic outlook did not worsen, the Bank of Canada might consider pausing after cutting rates at seven consecutive meetings. However, the Canadian economy will likely slow significantly in the coming months.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said last week the bank would “”roceed carefully””amid the tariff war. Economists are still awaiting more clarity on tariffs before firming up their expectations for the next rate decision on April 16, when policymakers will also update their forecasts. Right now, traders are betting that the BoC will hold rates steady in April, but a lot can and will happen before then.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Shakespeare might have thought ‘to be or not to be’ was the ultimate question, but he wasn’t living in 2025 trying to minimize bank fees and interest charges while maximizing financial returns—and having to pay $9 for a clamshell of raspberries. This month, we’re tackling a modern dilemma: ‘Should I get a variable or fixed rate on my mortgage?’ Not as poetic, but way more practical. Let’s dive in.

Understanding the Basics: Every mortgage payment has two components: principal and interest. Your choice between a fixed or variable mortgage impacts how these are structured over time.

Variable Rate Mortgages: Variable rate mortgages come in two main forms:

• Fixed Payment Variable Mortgage – You have a set monthly payment, but the portion that goes toward principal vs. interest fluctuates. When rates go up, more of your payment goes toward interest, slowing down how quickly you pay off your mortgage. When rates go down, more goes toward the principal, helping you pay off your loan faster.
• Adjustable Payment Variable Mortgage – The total mortgage payment fluctuates based on interest rate changes, ensuring the mortgage is paid off within the original amortization schedule. The portion of your payment allocated to interest and principal will shift as rates change.

Variable mortgages introduce an element of unpredictability, which some borrowers are comfortable with, while others prefer the security of knowing exactly what their payments will be.

Fixed Rate Mortgages: A fixed-rate mortgage means your interest rate and monthly payments remain the same throughout your term. This stability can be crucial for those who prioritize predictability in budgeting, mental well-being, or long-term financial planning. If the idea of fluctuating payments makes you uneasy, or if you want to avoid worrying about interest rate changes, a fixed-rate mortgage could be the right choice.

The Interest Rate Factor: The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets the overnight lending rate, which influences the Prime rate set by banks. Variable mortgage rates are typically based on Prime ± a lender-specific adjustment. There are eight key BoC announcements each year that can result in rate changes (or no changes at all). You’ve probably seen me cover these on social media (if not, I’d love for you to follow along!).

During the pandemic, the BoC lowered rates to 0.25% to stimulate borrowing. Rates began increasing in 2022 due to inflation, reaching 5% by mid-2023 before the BoC started cutting them in 2024. As of March 12, 2025, we’re at 2.75%, with six more rate decisions coming this year.

Risks: There are risks with both variable and fixed rates for your mortgage. With a fixed rate, the risk is that if rates drop, you will have a higher payment than what is available on the market. You’d also likely incur a penalty to break the fixed rate term to capitalise on any decreases. With a variable rate, the risk is that changing rates could increase the amortization of your mortgage. We also discussed the risk of Bank of Canada announcements indirectly changing your rate and therefore payment, impacting your budget and cash flow. And one final potential risk is if rates go up enough, it may trigger the need for a lump sum payment to your lender.

2025: What’s Next? The current rate is still above the target 2%, meaning there is room for potential decreases. However, nothing is guaranteed. Rates could hold steady or, in rare cases, even increase due to external factors like inflation spikes or international economic shifts.

Impact on Your Mortgage: If you have a variable mortgage, your rate is based on your lender’s Prime rate, which is influenced by the BoC policy rate. Your mortgage rate is typically Prime ± a lender adjustment. If the Prime rate is 6% and your lender offers Prime – 0.50%, your mortgage rate would be 5.50%.

• With a fixed payment variable mortgage, more of your payment goes toward principal.
• With an adjustable payment variable mortgage, your monthly payment decreases.

If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, your rate and payments remain unchanged during your term. This stability is why many borrowers prefer fixed rates, even if they sometimes come with slightly higher initial rates. Fixed rates are influenced by bond market trends rather than the Bank of Canada’s policy rate directly.

Which One is Right for You? There is no universal right answer—only the best choice for your financial situation, risk tolerance, and future plans. As your mortgage professional, I’d love to walk through your mortgage with you and discuss:

• The pros and cons of fixed vs. variable for your specific needs.
• How to budget for worst-case scenarios.
• Whether breaking your current mortgage to switch makes sense.
• Economic implications of switching between a variable and fixed rate.
• If adjustments at renewal would benefit you?

Send me an email, text, or call anytime! I’m here to provide guidance, not pressure. Let’s find the best mortgage strategy for you!

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 2.75%, within the neutral range of 2.25%—2.75%. Tariff tremors have already led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending, a weakening labour market, and a decline in business investment. Compound that with falling population growth, and you see why the Governing Council took the overnight rate down again even though they state that monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war.

Trade wars lead to higher prices and slower growth. The rise in prices causes consumers to tighten their belts, concerned about the impact of tariffs on their income and investments. Today, there is a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US. This impacts Canada the most as it supplies roughly 80% of US aluminum demand. The EU introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response. Canada added to its retaliation. Recent data suggest the US economy is slowing.

Monetary policy remains restrictive as the real overnight rate (2.75% minus the headline inflation rate) is 85 bps, up from the historical average of 60 bps. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields increased on the news to 2.65% compared to 4.05% in the US. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates when it meets again this month.

Despite relatively strong GDP growth in Canada in the second half of last year, home sales and hiring began to slow in late January due to tariff threats, and more tariffs are yet to come. On March 20, China is expected to impose 100% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola oil, while pork and seafood will face a 25% levy. The Chinese tariffs are a push-back against Canada for imposing a 100% levy on electric cars from China and  25% on steel and aluminum.

On April 2, the US announced it will impose reciprocal tariffs on nations that have levied tariffs on US goods. President Trump has also said he is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber.

“We’re now facing a new crisis. The economic impact could be severe depending on the extent and duration of new US tariffs,” Macklem said in his prepared remarks.

Macklem called the uncertainty of the tariff dispute “pervasive” and said that it was “already causing harm.” Officials said the “continuously changing” US tariff threat was hitting consumers’ spending intentions and limiting businesses’ plans to hire and invest.

At the same time, Macklem said the bank “will proceed carefully with any further changes” to borrowing costs, and officials would “need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand.”

Bottom Line

These are uncertain times. The US is determined to impose worldwide tariffs, disproportionately hitting Canada, Mexico, and China, the US’s top trading partners. This is a misguided neo-Mercantilist policy. Mercantilism assumes that the global economic pie is fixed, so if one country prospers, another must fail. This idea of a zero-sum game was debunked in the 18th century by Adam Smith and others who showed that if countries have a competitive advantage in various products and services, all are better off by producing and trading those products with the rest of the world. It is not a zero-sum game. The economic pie grows with trade. This was the idea behind globalization and the USMCA free trade agreement.

Given Canada’s vulnerability to tariffs, the economy will suffer more than the US, which has a relatively closed economy (where exports are a small proportion of GDP). Prices will rise depending on the duration and size of the coming tariffs, but mitigating the inflation will be the weakness in economic activity. Stagflation, a buzz-word in the 1970s, is back in the lexicon. We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.25% this June, triggering a rebound in home sales. Layoffs and spending cuts will dampen sentiment, but lower interest rates will bring buyers off the sidelines.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Weak Canadian Job Creation Opens The Way For BoC Easing Next Week

Today’s Labour Force Survey for February was weaker than expected, showing de minimis job growth last month. Employment held steady in February (+1,100; +0.0%), following three consecutive monthly increases totalling 211,000 (+1.0%) in November, December and January. On a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 387,000 (+1.9%) in February.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—was unchanged at 61.1% in February. This follows three consecutive months of increases. The employment rate had previously fallen 1.7 percentage points from April 2023 to October 2024, as employment growth was outpaced by population growth.

The number of private sector employees was little changed in February, following increases in December (+39,000; +0.3%) and January (+57,000; +0.4%). Public sector employment and self-employment were also little changed in February. Total actual hours worked fell 1.3% in February—the most significant monthly decline since April 2022. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 0.5% in February 2025.

Notable winter storms buried parts of Central and Eastern Canada in snow throughout the LFS reference week of February 9 to February 15. 429,000 employees lost work hours due to the weather for part of the week (not seasonally adjusted). This was more than four times higher than the average number of employees who lost work hours due to weather in February over the previous five years (96,000).