24 Jan

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year

Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of this year. While some economists predict a recession, the Bank suggests that “growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024” and “strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024.” This would be a soft landing.

While inflation ended 2023 at 3.4%, owing mainly to high and sticky shelter costs, “the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.”

The press release says that the “Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.”  The Bank now believes the economy is in excess supply, inflation expectations and corporate pricing behaviour are moving in the right direction, and wage demands, at 5.4% year-over-year in the last reading–are still too high. Wages are a lagging indicator and with job vacancies returning to pre-pandemic levels, wage pressures are likely to dissipate as the year progresses.
 

Today, the tone was much more optimistic, suggesting that policymakers are increasingly confident interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, Bank officials want to see more progress on core inflation before it begins to ease. It said, “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.”

The central bank focuses on “the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour” and remains resolute in restoring price stability.

Bottom Line

This was a more upbeat Bank of Canada statement. There is a good chance that monetary tightening has done its job, and inflation will trend downward in the coming months. As we have seen, the road to 2% inflation is bumpy, but we are heading there probably sooner than the Bank expects. As predicted, they are staying the course for now, but multiple rate cuts are likely this year. The scheduled dates for announcing the policy rate are March 6, April 10, June 5 and July 24. The Bank of Canada will begin cutting the overnight rate somewhere in there.

For now, my bet is on the June meeting, but if I’m wrong, it will likely be sooner rather than later. Once they begin to take rates down, they will do so gradually, 25 basis points at a time, and over a series of meetings. We could well see rates fall by 100-to-150 bps this year. Risks to the outlook remain, as always.

I do not expect the overnight policy rate to fall as low as the pre-Covid level of 1.75% this cycle. Inflation averaged less than 2% in the five years before COVID-19, depressed by increasing globalization and technological advances. Those forces are now reversed.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
16 Jan

Canadian Inflation Rises to 3.4% Y/Y In December

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target

Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month.

Additional acceleration came from airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles and rent. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% yearly in December, matching the increase in November (+4.7%). Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI were lower prices for travel tours.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.3% in December after a 0.1% gain in November. Lower month-over-month price movements for travel tours (-18.2%) and gasoline (-4.4%) contributed to the monthly decline. The CPI rose 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.
 

Two key yearly inflation measures that are tracked closely by the Bank of Canada and filter out components with more volatile price fluctuations — the so-called trim and median core rates — increased, averaging 3.65%, from an upwardly revised 3.55% a month earlier. That’s faster than the 3.35% pace expected by economists. The trim rate rose due to the movements of rent and passenger vehicle prices.

Another important indicator, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, rose to an annualized pace of 3.63% in December from 2.94% in November, according to Bloomberg calculations. The Bank of Canada follows this metric closely because it reveals shorter-term inflation trends.

According to Bloomberg News, following the release of today’s CPI data, “the yield on two-year Canadian government bonds rose about four basis points to 3.857%…Traders in overnight swaps pushed back bets on when the Bank of Canada will start cutting rates to July, from as early as April before the release.”
 

Bottom Line

This is the last major data release before the Bank of Canada meets again on January 24th. I concur with the widely held view that the rate pause will continue at the next meeting despite evidence that the economy is slowing. Governor Tiff Macklem will err on the side of caution before beginning to cut overnight rates. The last reading on wages showed a 5.4% y/y rise, and yesterday’s housing release showed a bump in sales. Macklem and Co. will keep their powder dry until they see an all-clear signal that core inflation is sustainably below 3%.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
20 Dec

Inflation Held Steady In November

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

 

Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a year-over-year basis.

The CPI rose 0.1% from October to November, the same growth rate as in October. The steady pace of annual inflation resulted from the base effects in the energy sector. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent month over month in November (-3.5%) than in October (-6.4%). Base effects will also inflate next month’s year-over-year data as well.
 

Core prices aligned with the headline figures, as the Bank of Canada’s favourite core measures came in at roughly 3.5%. Even excluding food and energy, the core rose 3.5% y/y. The core data were more favourable at three-month trends, posting at about 2.5%.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s CPI data show why Governor Tiff Macklem is cautious about rate cuts, but judging from the past three months, core inflation is on a downward trend.

In a speech on Friday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said inflation could get “close” to the bank’s 2% target by late next year, though he also said it was “still too early to consider cutting our policy rate.”

The economy is slowing, labour markets have eased, and price pressures are slowing. The road to 2% inflation will be bumpy, but it remains likely that monetary tightening has peaked, and rate cuts will begin by the middle of next year.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
18 Dec

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

 

Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by projecting more aggressive interest-rate cuts in 2024. This ignited one of the biggest post-meeting rallies in bonds and stocks in recent memory. Global shares spiked higher. Short-term Treasuries posted their best day since March, while world currencies surged against the US dollar and corporate bonds rallied. Canadian markets followed suit. If anything, Canada is far more interest-sensitive than the US, and our economy is far weaker.

As the charts below show, monthly mortgage payments relative to after-tax income are far higher in Canada than in the US, even more so given the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and property taxes south of the border. The US economy grew by a whopping 5.2% in the third quarter compared to a decline of 1.1% in Canada.  Therefore, the Bank of Canada will likely cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than in the US, improving housing affordability.
 

The CREA data for November showed a bottoming housing market. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged down by 0.9% from October to November 2023, the smallest decline since July.
 

New Listings

Sellers move to the sidelines as well. The number of newly listed homes fell 1.8% month-over-month in November. This followed a 2.2% decline in October.

With new listings down by more than sales in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened slightly to 49.8% compared to 49.4% in October. It was the first time this measure has increased since April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55.1%.

There were 4.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of November 2023, up only slightly from 4.1 months at the end of October. As such, this measure also looks to be stabilizing and is still almost a full month below its long-term average of nearly five months of inventory.

The second chart below shows that we are definitely in a buyers’ market.
 

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.1% month-over-month in November 2023, reflecting softer market conditions since the end of the summer. Prices often react with a slight lag, so it will be interesting to see if month-over-month declines get smaller or stop getting larger in December in response to a stabilizing demand-supply balance.

While price declines remain mainly an Ontario phenomenon, home prices are now softening in the Fraser Valley, Winnipeg, and Halifax. Elsewhere in Canada, prices are mostly holding firm or, in some cases (Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Price Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador), continuing to climb. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.
 

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada policymakers will meet again on January 24th. While it will likely be several months before the Bank begins to cut the policy rate, market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply. Fixed mortgage rates have also come down but more moderately. I expect to start easing monetary policy in the spring, taking the overnight rate down by roughly 100 bps by yearend 2024. Housing activity will strengthen in 2024 and 2025, although the economy will be burdened by a substantial rise in monthly mortgage payments as many renewals or refinancings rise, peaking in 2026.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
6 Dec

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone
 

It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each word of the BoC press release and assessed that the Bank took a less hawkish stance.

This time, the release said, “Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.”

At the prior meeting in late October, the Bank said that the labour market remained “on the tight side” but acknowledged today that it was loosening. Indeed, the October Monetary Policy Report suggested that the inflation rate would not hit its 2% target level until late 2025.
 
 

Today, the tone was much more optimistic, suggesting that policymakers are increasingly confident interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, Bank officials want to see more progress on core inflation before it begins to ease. It said, “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.”

The central bank focuses on “the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour” and remains resolute in restoring price stability.

Bottom Line

Bond yields peaked in early October and have fallen by nearly 100 basis points. This has led to reductions in fixed mortgage rates; however, those cuts have been far less than historical experience would have suggested, given the rally in 5-year government bonds.

Cuts in variable mortgage rates await a reduction in the overnight policy rate, which triggers a commensurate decline in the prime rate, which is currently stuck at 7.2%. I expect the BoC to begin cutting the policy rate by the middle of next year, taking it down a full percentage point to 4% by yearend.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
30 Nov

The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024
 

The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the positive impetus of rapid population growth. Household consumer spending flatlined, and the savings rate rose, confirming that the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate hikes are doing their job to slow economic activity.

Statistics Canada also released preliminary data suggesting that GDP grew 0.2% in October, boosted by residential construction and increased oil and gas extraction and retail trade, after the better-than-expected 0.1% expansion in September.

The economic contraction was broadly based. Household spending hasn’t been this weak since 2009, except during the pandemic lockdowns. In addition, business investment was particularly feeble, down 14.4% for business equipment and -7.7% for nonresidential construction. Exports also declined 5.1% over the same period.  Investment in residential construction rose 8.3% annualized, the first increase since the beginning of 2022.
 

Job vacancy data, also released today, posted another decline, confirming that the economy has weakened and excess demand has been eliminated. On a per capita basis, Canada’s economy has contracted for the second consecutive quarter.

Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the labour market report for November.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s release is welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Tiff Macklem said last week that the Bank’s interest rate hikes were doing their job to return inflation to its 2% target. The Governing Council meets once again on December 6th. We expect a more dovish press release suggesting that the policy rate has likely peaked. Market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply since early October, taking fixed mortgage rates down significantly (see chart below).

Traders in overnight swaps are betting the Bank of Canada will loosen monetary policy as early as April 2024, little changed from before the release. I expect that the Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates beginning in the second quarter of next year, taking the overnight rate down 200 basis points to 3.0% by year’s end.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
18 Oct

Canadian Inflation Dips to 3.8% Keeping BoC On The Sidelines.

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

Published by Sherry Cooper October 17, 2023

Canadian Inflation Dips to 3.8% Keeping BoC On The Sidelines.

good news on the inflation front suggests policy rates have peaked

Today’s inflation report for September was considerably better than expected, ending the three-month rise in inflation. Not only did the headline inflation rate fall, but so did the core measures of inflation on a year-over-year basis and a three-month moving average basis. This, in combination with the weak Business Outlook Survey released yesterday, suggests that the overnight policy rate at 5% may be the peak in rates. While I do not expect the Bank to begin cutting rates until the middle of next year, the worst of the tightening cycle may well be over.

Offsetting the deceleration in the all-items CPI was a year-over-year increase in gasoline prices, which rose faster in September (+7.5%) compared with August (+0.8%) due to a base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.7% in September, following a 4.1% increase in August. Looking ahead to the October inflation report, the base effect for headline CPI is favourable, as CPI surged in October 2022. Gasoline prices are down about 7% so far this month. Given the war in the Middle East, however, there is no guarantee that this will hold, but if it does, the October headline CPI could move into the low-3% range.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in September after a 0.4% gain in August. The monthly slowdown was mainly driven by lower month-over-month prices for gasoline (-1.3%) in September. Goods inflation fell 0.3% from a month earlier, the first time since December 2022, and grew 3.6% from a year ago versus 3.7% in August. Services inflation was unchanged from August, the first time it hasn’t grown on a monthly basis since November 2021, while the rate slowed to 3.9% on a yearly basis, from 4.3% in August.

Yesterday’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that perceptions of current inflation remain well above actual inflation.  One reason is the very visible level of grocery and gasoline prices. As the chart below shows, food inflation–though still elevated–decelerated to 5.9% last month, and CPI excluding food and energy fell to a cycle-low 2.8%. Large monthly gains in September 2022, when grocery prices increased at the fastest pace in 41 years, fell out of the 12-month movements and put downward pressure on the indexes.

Prices for durable goods rose at a slower pace year over year in September (+0.4%) compared with August (+1.4%). The purchase of new passenger vehicles index contributed the most to the slowdown, rising 1.7% year over year in September, following a 3.1% gain in August. The deceleration in the price of new passenger vehicles was partly attributable to improved inventory levels compared with a year ago.

Additionally, furniture prices (-4.6%) and household appliances (-2.3%) continued to decline year-over-year in September, contributing to the slowdown in durable goods. Consumers paid less on a year-over-year basis for air transportation (-21.1 %) in September, coinciding with a gradual increase in airline flights over the previous 12 months.

Other measures of core inflation followed by the Bank of Canada also decelerated.

Bottom Line

According to Bloomberg News calculations, “A three-month moving average of underlying price pressures that Governor Tiff Macklem has flagged as key to policymakers’ thinking fell to an annualized pace of 3.67%, from 4.29% a month earlier.”  While this is still well above the Bank’s 2% target, the global economy is slowing, the Canadian and US economies are slowing, and with any luck at all, the Bank of Canada might see inflation move to within its target range next year. However, the central bank will be cautious, refraining from rate cuts until the middle of next year. The full impact of rate hikes has yet to be felt. The next move by the Bank of Canada could be a rate cut, but not until next year.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/
18 Oct

So, you need a tenant.

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

So, you need a tenant.

If you have a basement suite or rental property and you are currently looking for a tenant, there are some things to know! Whether this is your first tenant or you have other rental properties, it is a good idea to familiarize yourself with the specifics to ensure a harmonious tenancy.

As always, your responsibility as the landlord is to keep your rental properties in good condition and ensure they meet health, safety, and housing standards. However, as a landlord, you also have additional responsibilities around the rental agreement and tenant regulations.

Tenancy Agreement

Landlords are required to prepare a written agreement for every tenancy. Bear in mind, if this agreement is not prepared the standard terms for your province will still apply, especially if a security deposit is paid. This agreement should clearly outline the following:

  • Who the agreement is between
  • The length of the tenancy
  • Rent amount and due date
  • Required deposits (if any)
  • Pet restrictions (if any)
  • Additional terms (smoking or non-smoking, etc)

The tenancy agreement should also outline if there is the ability to add a roommate, and whether or not utilities, parking, storage, laundry, etc. are included.

Deposits

Typically, a security or damage deposit is requested by the landlord to establish tenancy and cover any unexpected issues that may arise. The deposit can be no more than half of the first month’s rent.

If you are charging a pet deposit fee, note that guide or service pets are exempt from any damage deposits. In addition, you cannot charge fees beyond the pet damage deposit.

Move In

To ensure the move-in goes smoothly, tenants and landlords should schedule a move-in time that works for everyone. At the beginning of the tenancy, you may also consider an inspection before the new tenant has moved in to ensure everyone is on the same page and the condition of the unit is clear in regard to any potential damages or fixes needed.

As a landlord, you are also responsible for changing the locks (at your cost) should the new tenant request it.

Additional Considerations

As a landlord, you will want to assess the suitability of any new tenant before signing the agreement. There are a few things you can do to ensure a smooth process and the right choice of tenant:

  • Ask for proof of identity
  • Thoroughly check all references
  • Contact previous landlords to ask about rental and payment history
  • Conduct a credit check to confirm income and financial suitability
  • Get the names of all persons to be living in the rental unit

Once you have reviewed the above, you will be in a good position to determine if the potential tenant is a good fit for the rental space.

However, keep in mind that you cannot refuse to rent to a tenant based on any discriminatory aspects such as race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, etc. In addition, you cannot refuse to rent to individuals on income assistance.

While it can seem like a lot, with the proper preparation and understanding of tenant laws and regulations in your area, you can ensure a smooth and successful rental process!

12 Sep

The True Cost of Downsizing

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

The True Cost of Downsizing.

Many Canadians consider downsizing during their retirement years. Once their children have left the nest, the choice seems obvious: relocate to a smaller residence or a more affordable town and capitalize on the price difference. For many retirees, the funds from the sale of their home can significantly impact their overall lifestyle and financial well-being.

However, there are downsides of downsizing you should be aware of before you call your realtor.

Downsizing in Canada: A Cost Analysis

The cost of moving is probably one of the biggest downsides to downsizing. To give you an idea of the figures involved, we conducted a cost analysis for a typical downsizing scenario using an example of selling a home in Toronto for $1,000,000 and buying a condo for $700,000.

Theoretically, this would free up $300,000 in equity while moving you into a smaller home. According to Ratehub, you need a nest egg of $450,000 if you want to retire comfortably in Canada. The money from the sale of your home could have a meaningful impact on your retirement finances. But how much of that chunk will you get to keep to boost your nest egg? Below is an estimated list of cost considerations when choosing to downsize:

Fees Downsizing Reverse Mortgage
Real estate fees (average 5% selling price) $50,000 N/A
Legal Fees $1,200-$2,400 $300-$600
Land Transfer Tax (Varies depending on province and city) $8,975 N/A
Moving expenses (packing supplies, moving service, garbage removal, etc.) $3,000-$6,500 N/A
Furnishing and upgrades $8,000-$25,000 N/A
Home appraisal $500 $300-$600
Closing fee $500-,$1500 $1,795-$2,995
Total $72,175-$94,875 $2,395-$4,195

As you can see, downsizing could cost you between $72,175 – $94,875.

If you live in a big city like Toronto, $300,000 of equity could shrink to just $205,125* after considering these downsizing costs. However, these costs are not the only negative effects of downsizing to consider.

The Downsizing Dilemma 

Many Canadians underestimate the financial and emotional costs of downsizing, overlooking various aspects:

  • Home Improvements: Before selling, homes often need upgrades, from simple fixes to major renovations like kitchens or roofs. Also, many invest in staging their homes.
  • Belonging Decisions: Downsizing means deciding which possessions to keep due to space constraints, often leading to emotional challenges and storage expenses.
  • Leaving Family Homes: Leaving a home that carries so many joyful memories, especially if someone is widowed, can be challenging. Relocating might disconnect you from communities and loved ones.

An Alternative to Downsizing in Canada: A Reverse Mortgage 

A Reverse Mortgage can be the ideal alternative to downsizing. Unlock up to 55% of your home’s equity in tax-free cash while staying in your beloved home without leaving the neighbourhood you love. This money improves your retirement finances and can be used to renovate and retrofit the home for accessibility and livability as you age. With no required monthly mortgage payments to make, a Reverse Mortgage is becoming a popular solution.

Book a strategy call with me to learn how a Reverse Mortgage can help you save on the stress and expense of downsizing and live the retirement of your dreams.

*Based on $300,000 of equity minus $94,875 (the highest downsizing cost).

12 Sep

Mortgage Portability

General

Posted by: Tim Woolnough

Mortgage Portability.

When it comes to getting a mortgage, one of the more overlooked elements is the option to be able to port the loan down the line.

Porting your mortgage is an option within your mortgage agreement, which enables you to move to another property without having to lose your existing interest rate, mortgage balance and term. Thereby allowing you to move or ‘port’ your mortgage over to the new home. Plus, the ability to port also saves you money by avoiding early discharge penalties should you move partway through your term.

Typically, portability options are offered on fixed-rate mortgages. Lenders often use a “blended” system where your current mortgage rate stays the same on the mortgage amount ported over to the new property and the new balance is calculated using the current interest rate. When it comes to variable-rate mortgages, you may not have the same option. However, when breaking a variable-rate mortgage, you would only be faced with a three-month interest penalty charge, which is much lower than the average penalty to break a fixed mortgage. In addition, there are cases where you can be reimbursed the fee with your new mortgage.

If you already have the existing option to port your mortgage, or are considering it for your next mortgage cycle, there are a few considerations to keep in mind:

  1. Timeframe: Some portability options require the sale and purchase to occur on the same day. Other lenders offer a week to do this, some a month, and others up to three months.
  2. Terms: Keep in mind, some lenders don’t allow a changed term or might force you into a longer term as part of agreeing to port you mortgage.
  3. Penalty Reimbursements: Some lenders may reimburse your entire penalty, whether you are a fixed or variable borrower, if you simply get a new mortgage with the same lender – replacing the one being discharged. Additionally, some lenders will even allow you to move into a brand-new term of your choice and start fresh. Keep in mind, there can be cases where it’s better to pay a penalty at the time of selling and get into a new term at a brand-new rate that could save back your penalty over the course of the new term.

To get all the details about mortgage portability and find out if you have this option (or the potential penalties if you don’t), book a call with me today for expert advice and a helping hand throughout your mortgage journey!